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Tuesday, 30 June 2020

Some coronavirus calculations

Recently, the IMF claimed that the coronavirus crisis will cost the world 12,000 billion dollars or 12 trillion dollars (eg, FR-24IMF-14 April 2020Trouw). Actually, this number seems like a minimum given the trillions of dollars that the US is already spending (eg, MarketWatch-2020). Per capita, the coronavirus crisis will cost some $1,538 (ie, $12 trillion / 7.8 billion).

That cost of some $1,500 may seem (very) low until you compare it to global GDP. Per capita, global GDP amounts to $11,187 (ie, $87,265,226,000,0007.8 billion). Hence, the coronavirus crisis will cost us some 13,75% per capita (ie, $1,538 / $11,187). On the surface, this average ratio still seems fine.

The loss distribution of this 12,000 billion dollars will, however, not be proportional. Let alone that the heaviest burden will rest on the strongest shoulders. Actually, it will probably be the other way around: the heaviest corona burden will rest on the weakest shoulders.

Initially, I read articles that the coronavirus pandemic might cause an increase in global equality. Probably, those articles were "wishful thinking" by the liberal-left. Today, there is lots of concern about an increase in global poverty. The reason is simple: only rich western governments are supporting their citizens and companies. Hence, an increase in global inequality.

Several centuries ago, a pandemic occurred with intervals of several hundreds of years (my May 1 blog). The increase in global trade and travel (a.k.a. globalization) has created smaller intervals, of say a hundred years. Increasing annual medical cost for preventing a likely future but unknown global infectious disease (a.k.a. pandemic) does not seem feasible.

Despite these $12,000 billion, the world still faces several hundreds of thousands of deaths. Today, this number is estimated at: 506,079 or 0.0064% of the world population. This fatality rate may well increase to 0.05%, or 3,900,000 global deaths, or $3.1 million per global fatality.

Early June 2020, a study by the Imperial College London claimed that millions of European lives were saved following its lockdowns (eg, BBC-8 June, EU-Cordis). Sweden did not have a lockdown and has reported 5,209 deaths, which represents 0.05% of its population. Moreover, countries with a severe lockdown report higher fatalities than countries without.

My 14 May 2020 blog assumes an average corona fatality rate of 0.05% (ie, 1 in 2,000 people) while the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic had a fatality rate of 4.5% (ie, 1 in 22 people). It's extremely unlikely that millions of people were saved by spending 12,000 billion dollars.

Who Pays the Ferryman (1977) by Yannis Markopoulos
composer, no lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2


Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.

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