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Wednesday, 25 March 2020

Senicide (3): "We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself"

The title of today's blog is a line from a March 23 tweet by Donald Trump, albeit without his usual capital letters. I must admit that I have been considering the very same thought. I even talked about it with my mother (85). I think, feel and believe that saving the lives of the elderly is indeed worth an economic recession. However, what about a depression?

Trump's tweet, and its underlying reasoning, is an example of senicide or "the abandonment to death, suicide, or killing of the elderly" (Times-2020FD-2020my March 23 blog-1my March 23 blog-2). Most likely, Trump aims to avoid a period known as the Great Depression (1929-c.1933). In that period, "the only major cause of death that increased was suicide" (History).

There is little doubt there will be a recession following the coronavirus crisis, although its duration might be months rather than years. However, the longer national lockdowns will last, the more likely a depression will hit global economies (eg, BBCVox). The virus epidemic in China might be over but a surge in demand for Chinese products will only start after other global economies will start rebooting. In the meantime, China will also bleed.

In my March 2016 blog, I started using a graph which I noticed in 2008 when I was preparing a presentation on economic cycles for a major financial institution.

This 2008 graph was prepared by Charles Hugh Smith, and shows long-term economic cycles. These cycles also feel like waves.

My personal financial planning has been in accordance with this 2008 graph and my related blogs (eg, 2016-032016-12201720182019). Hence, once again I am lucky.

Since March 2016, I have been wondering what could - and thus would - trigger the end of the long-term Strauss-Howe generational cycle in 2020. A virus pandemic had never occurred to me. With the knowledge of hindsight, it makes sense that such a global downturn had to relate to global panic.

There appears to be a statistical correlation between economic depressions and pandemics (eg, CDC-2017NCBI-2016, Reuters-2013, WSJ-2009). Another intriguing thought is that virus pandemics may somehow operate alongside the human generational cycle (eg, 1918 Great Influenza Pandemic).

Short People (1977) by Randy Newman

Short people got no reason 
Short people got no reason 
Short people got no reason 
To live

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise.

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