Total Pageviews

Friday, 20 December 2019

What if Senate Republicans decide to drop Trump

On 18 December 2019, the House of Representatives voted to impeach the 45th U.S. President. Everyone now expects that the Republican dominated Senate will save Trump from impeachment. What if the Senate votes Trump out?

The above may seem farfetched. Rob de Wijk, Professor of International Relations and Security at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs at Leiden University, disagrees. His Dutch newspaper column of 22 November 2019 was clear: If they can drop Trump, important Republicans will do so.

Mr De Wijk presents compelling arguments for his case: Trump was chosen against the wishes of his own Republican party. It lasted until January 2019 before the Republican chair of the House (ie, Paul Ryan) started supporting Trump.

Mr De Wijk is convinced that Trump made Republican enemies for life due to the way he came to power. Some day, Trump's day of reckoning will arrive. The opportunity of a House approved impeachment might become that moment.

The number of Republicans, who are retiring from political life, is becoming higher and higher. This might just be another wave of people who all joined the Republican GOP many years ago. However, they might also know something that we do not yet know, like a Senate impeachment.

In 2019, Republican Mitch McConnell, vowed to U.S. Congress: "Think of me as the Grim Reaper". If there's any person Trump should be worried about, then it's Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader. Impeaching Trump and promoting the Vice President might well be in his interest.

Trump has alienated Republicans over several contentious issues:
- Trump's trade war with China;
- Trump's admiration for autocrats in China, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey;
- Trump's continuous fighting with allies while protecting U.S. enemies;
- Trump's recent decision to turn his back on the U.S. Army supported Kurds.

In general, what-if questions (eg, my 2016 blog) are hypothetical because such situations do not occur in real life (eg, a different decision in the past). Politics is the realm of the unexpected and impeachments rarely happen. Only two presidents, Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton, have been impeached before Trump. Richard Nixon resigned himself. (eg, HistoryNet)

I doubt there will ever come a better moment for Senate Republicans to drop Trump.

(Don't Fear) The Reaper (1976) by Blue Öyster Cult 

All our times have come 
Here, but now they're gone 
Seasons don't fear the reaper 
Nor do the wind, the sun or the rain


Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

No comments:

Post a comment