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Wednesday, 11 December 2019

Decoupling of Business and Politics: global economies (5)

The decoupling of the Chinese and the US economy is slowly getting worse and both countries are now in "the foothills of a Cold War" (Bloomberg). FX Street: "Export figures were released from China this weekend and show that the situation between the two largest economies is getting worse. The exports to the US showed a twelfth consecutive decline."

The political stakes are also increasing: without a compromise either the 45th American president may lose his 2020 reelection, or the Chinese president may be replaced by the Central Committee that appointed him (eg, GPF). A compromise seems slip sliding away as the American odds of winning seem to be increasing - at least in Trump's view.

Both the "imminent" departure of the UK from the EU-28 as well as the American-Chinese trade war, show that businesses are changing global supply chains in case of political instability. Hence, my 2018 and 2019 blogs on the decoupling of business and politics regarding Unilever (#1), the UK (#2), UK and USA (#3), and USA (#4).

In my view, the above is a zero-sum game and thus someone must lose. I expect that the belief system Politics will lose. The belief system Money sides with the winner in the Power domain of the 7 Belief systems (eg, Politics, Religion). The winning belief systems will be Data-Info and Technology. Both belief systems are better known as Big Tech (USA) and BATX (China).

The UK does not fit into this picture. I agree with George Friedman that it is more likely that the UK will form an "economic and security alliance" with its former settler colonies, including USA (GPF). However, the UK might become an American vassal state that aims to disrupt the economic bloc it just left. The German Chancellor recently warned for this (my blog).

Important changes have a habit of occurring at the end of a decade (eg, 1789, 19171929, 1939, 19791989, 2007-08). Sometimes, we worry for "nothing" like the Y2K doomsday predictions. The changes at the end of this decade are causing lots of turmoil and anxiety. All around the world, people seem to be protesting against their (local) governments for whatever reason.

The decoupling between Business and Politics is a very important change. In my view, it's one of the four (4) paradigm shifts that are happening right under our noses: the end of Politics, from Religion to Faith, from Science to Technology, from the Truth to Data-Info. The end result has been outlined in my blog: The 7 Belief systems - a 2019 update

“The present convergence of crises––in money, energy, education, health, water, soil, climate, politics, the environment, and more––is a birth crisis, expelling us from the old world into a new.” A quote by Charles Eisenstein (b. 1967) from his 2011 book "Sacred Economics: Money, Gift, and Society in the Age of Transition".

Slip Slidin' Away (1977) by Simon & Garfunkel

Slip slidin’ away 
Slip slidin’ away 
You know the nearer your destination 
The more you’re slip slidin’ away


Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

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