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Monday, 14 October 2019

The Great Rebalancing

On 22 September 2019, George Friedman's GeopoliticalFutures sent an email newsletter discussing Michael Pettis' new book: The Great Rebalancing (GPF). Many people believe that today's world is dominated by chaos (eg, recent VPRO Backlight). In my view, chaos is a mere - and necessary - prelude to a new equilibrium.

The imminent Great Rebalancing is also visible in a 2008 diagram by Charles Hugh Smith (BI-2011, my blogs of 2016-032016-12, and 2018-02).

The blue line mirrors the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

The red line mirrors the subsequent great recession of the late 2000's and early 2010's.

The purple line represents the end of the about 80 year Strauss-Howe generational cycle by 2020.

I think, feel and believe that the 2020 crisis will be unlike any other than the ones that various current generations have witnessed so far (eg, yesterday’s blog).

In previous crises, the ones who were hit were consumers (unemployment) and companies (bankruptcies). The 2020 crisis is more likely to hit heavily indebted governments, like China and especially USA. The moral bankruptcy in Donald Trump's USA may soon be followed by a financial bankruptcy, once investors realise that US debt is unsustainable and unstoppable.

At both sides of the US political aisle, there is also a clear choice for nationalism and a retreat from internationalism (eg, NATO, various treaties). The reasons vary, however, between increasing US welfare (for the poor) and reducing taxation (for the rich).

It's speculation what the Great Rebalancing may bring but war may - again - be part of it. A second Trump presidency in 2020 could spell doom for Taiwan because draft-dodging coward Trump will - again - turn his back on his allies. Why? Neither the Kurds nor the Taiwanese fought along USA in Normandy.

The Shores of Normandy (1969) by Jim Radford


Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

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