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Wednesday, 31 July 2019

Will Trump mobilize non-white communities like Obama in 2008?

The 2008 U.S. presidential election showed a substantial increase in both turn-out and in non-white voters. NYT-2009: "Compared with 2004, the voting rate for black, Asian and Hispanic voters increased by about four percentage points. The rate for whites declined by one percentage point." Obama won by delivering a positive message ("Yes we can").

The 45th U.S. President has been quite successful despite - or perhaps as a result of - delivering a slur of negative messages (eg, Twitter). In his 2016 campaign, he frequently mocked non-white communities (eg, HuffPost-2016). His 2020 re-election campaign shows a relentless attack on prominent members of the African-American community (eg, PBS).

The Trump Administration is mostly working on undoing the 2008-2016 Obama legacy. The 2020 Trump campaign seems to be the exact opposite of the 2008 Obama campaign: using negative messages towards Obama's demographic segment of non-whites. Winning in 2020 through negativity would be Trump's ultimate vindication over Obama and his messages of hope.

Trump's strategy seems incredibly risky because mobilizing the African-American community again - similar as Obama in 2008 - may easily result in Trump losing his 2020 re-election. I think, feel and believe that this is Trump's biggest gamble ever because it's personal. Hence, a high risk, high reward strategy. The US-China trade war is "just" business.

If Trump would lose in 2020 - which is far from sure - then his legacy would still include creating the most-divisive country ever. Other nations, like China and Russia, would be able to leverage on his divisive legacy. Hence, there is a clear win-win for Trump's revolution of disruption, chaos and destruction (part 1, part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5 of my 2017-2018 blogs).

If Trump would win in 2020 - with or without foreign assistance - then America is up for an "extreme makeover". Most likely, the separation of powers - between the legislative, executive and judicial branches of government - will be further eroded by appointing Trump family members at the helm of vital institutions and/or positions (eg, Fed, G20UN, World Bank).

I'm more and more convinced that the arsonist-in-chief is aiming at torching his own country. Given Trump's love for using reverse psychology, it's quite possible that Trump hates his own country and would love to go back to the country of his grandfather Friedrich Trump. As often with bullies, nobody is waiting for Trump in Germany.

"Last September 16th, I was walking in downtown Seattle when this pick-up truck pulls up in front of me. Guy leans out the window and yells, "Go back to your own country," and I was laughing so hard because it wasn't so much a hate crime as a crime of irony." A quote by Sherman Alexie (b. 1966), a Spokane-Coeur d'Alene-American novelist, short story writer, poet, and filmmaker.

Go Your Own Way (1976) by Fleetwood Mac ft. Lindsey Buckingham

Note: all markings (bolditalicunderlining) by LO unless stated otherwise

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