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Monday, 28 May 2018

Occam's razor: MH17 and MH370

Last Thursday, the Dutch-led investigation into the downing of MH17 stated that a Russian Buk missile from the 53rd Brigade in Kursk was responsible, and beyond any reasonable doubt. Russia denied and restated their unreasonable explanations. Apart from means and opportunity, motive is essential in any investigation as “everything follows Why”.

A few months earlier in 2014, Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 went missing. Despite 4 years of investigations, that plane has still not been found. Some debris was found which gave rise to various conflicting explanations on what might have happened. Means and opportunity may indeed suggest pilot involvement. His motive, however, would still be unclear.

Airplane accidents are relatively rare. Two (very) weird airplane incidents both involving Malaysia Airlines do not feel like a coincidence. Early May 2018, the 60-year rule by a single Malaysian party ended abruptly after the 2018 general election. During their reign, the number of allegations of massive corruption only increased (eg, 1MDB scandal).

Money is probably the oldest and most common motive for crimes, apart from jealousy. Applying the theory of Occam’s razor (my 2018 blog) to MH17 and MH370, would suggest that Malaysian corruption is involved in both airplane events. Any other explanation would require making lots of assumptions, like extreme Russian nationalists (Guardian-2015).

“In 2015, former Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak was accused of channelling over RM 2.67 billion (nearly USD 700 million) from 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), a government-run strategic development company, to his personal bank accounts.” (Wiki)

Thus far, the continued persistent criminal investigations by several international governments on the 1MDB corruption scandal have not resulted in any public link with the MH17 and/or MH370 events. Such a link might however be absent or imaginary.

Despite overwhelming evidence, Russia is unlikely to acknowledge accountability and/or responsibility. A scenario where Russia does not control their armed forces would be devastating to Russian political leadership. A scenario in which their armed forces followed political orders, would have severe international repercussions (eg, blacklisting, sanctions).

Both MH17 and MH370 must have had meticulous planning in order to fool (international) investigators for such a long time. Such meticulous planning requires operational financing (eg, bribes, info/intel, means). However, money always leaves a trail: amounts, bank accounts, dates, receivers, senders. Hence, the saying “follow the money” (eg, my 2017 blog).

The recent toppling of the 60-year reign of the Malaysian government may bring “house cleaning”. The Malaysian PM-elect said there are too many questions that have not been answered on MH370: "Was it a failure of the system? Was it a failure of those monitoring the system or was it an intention to ignore or cover up?" (Daily Mail, MSNThe Australian)

Private Investigations (1982) by Dire Straits
artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

It's a mystery to me - the game commences
For the usual fee - plus expenses
Confidential information - in a diary
This is my investigation - not a public inquiry
I go checking out the reports - digging up the dirt
You get to meet all sorts in this line of work
Treachery and treason - there's always an excuse for it
And when I find the reason I still can't get used to it
And what have you got at the end of the day?
What have you got to take away?
A bottle of whisky and a new set of lies
Blinds on the windows and a pain behind the eyes
Scarred for life - no compensation
Private investigations


Note: all markings (bold, italic, underlining) by LO unless stated otherwise