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Wednesday, 28 March 2018

The complexities of international affairs

When I was born in 1960, the world was still rather black and white, including our TV screens. There was a simple divide between Left (Communism, Labour) and Right (Conservatives, Liberals). Christian parties were often center parties and facilitated governments at the Left and the Right. Since about 2000, we have a new divide: Globalism vs Nationalism (my blogs).

The complexities of this new divide can be seen in my diagram.

Extreme left and extreme right political parties have both joined Nationalism. This also explains their Russian funding / loans.

The European Union has become the sole supporter of Globalism or Internationalism, including former nationalist countries like France.

China supports both domestic Nationalism (eg, IP theft) and international Globalism (eg, soft loans in Africa and Asia).

Russia is the main driver of international Nationalism.

The UK is torn apart between political Nationalism (ie, Brexit) and economic Globalism (ie, free trade). I still expect that the latter will win through Mrs May's Machiavellian Moves (my blogs). The recent assassination of a former spy in the UK has - once again - revealed the (security) vulnerabilities of Brexit. Moreover, the Cambridge Analytica scandal may even evidence the alleged election fraud by Brexit's Vote Leave.

Trump's USA is leaving Globalism side and is entering Nationalism. A successful Trump 2020 re-election campaign may finalise this massive transfer in international affairs. Trump's USA gives mixed messages by suggesting currency wars (globalism) and also trade wars (nationalism).

To some extent, Turkey is in the same spot as the UK. However, Turkey is flirting with Nationalism (eg, reclaiming Ottoman Empire) and enemies (eg, Russia), while blackmailing Globalism (eg, EU refugees, visas) and friends (eg, GreeceNATO). Turkey is - by far - the most complex element in international affairs (eg, Israel).

Complexity (2015) by EODM


Note: all bold and italic markings by LO unless stated otherwise