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Friday, 19 January 2018

The 45th President and the What-If question (2)

I don't like What-If questions (my 2016 blog). Nevertheless, part 1 was about what-if Trump gets ousted or re-elected. Robert Mueller's investigation in the Russian interference in the 2016 US elections triggers another question: what will happen if the 45th President was elected through (voter) fraud? Would that make him an illegitimate 45th President?

Obviously, a fraud would explain the largest ever variance with the popular vote. It would also explain seemingly insignificant but surprising and weird variances that were only noted in the 2016 election results of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won by some +1% of the votes while avoiding mandatory recounts (eg, CNNPRWP, Wiki).

I'm not sure the US could handle the outcome of an illegitimate 45th President. Denial (my blog) seems a realistic 1st step. Subsequent steps would normally be Anger (my blog), Bargaining (my blogs), Depression (my blog) and - finally - Acceptance (my blog). These 5 steps are known from Elisabeth K├╝bler-Ross' model of processing grief - or Change.

The consequences of an illegitimate 45th President would be enormous. Could an illegitimate 45th President have appointed a legitimate Cabinet? If not, should every single decision by the entire (current) Administration be considered illegitimate?

So far, most of Trump's decisions were about destroying the Obama legacy (eg, NYT). Other far-reaching decisions are his judicial appointments (eg, Economist). Some of these (contested) decisions were stopped by Republicans as the Trump appointees did not even have the basic knowledge to perform their jobs (eg, CNN).

A most important issue is the following: if the 45th President got his job through (voter) fraud, what happens to the (outcome of the) 2016 US Presidential elections??

One route would be the annulment of the 2016 US Presidential elections. This would bring the USA in line with the 2017 presidential elections in Kenya. Another route is that Trump's opponent should and/or would have won the 45th Presidency, if only following the largest-ever discrepancy in the popular vote.

A certainty is that the results of Robert Mueller's investigation and/or the legitimacy of the 45th President will be contested in court for years. It's conceivable and probably even likely that the (voter) fraud details will never be released to the general public.

“You’re worried about what-ifs. Well, what if you stopped worrying?” A quote from Driving Off Bridges by Shannon Celebi.

(I don't need) No Frauds (2017) by Nicki Minaj, Drake & Lil Wayne