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Wednesday, 7 December 2016

Time & Space: Conflict, Chaos and Change

It is not often that nations learn from the past, even rarer that they draw the correct conclusions from it. A Henry Kissinger quote.

We believe that the Past is in the past and that the Future cannot be predicted. Remarkably, there is a discrepancy between our macro belief and our micro belief. On an individual basis, often our past behaviour is indicative for our current and future behaviour (eg, daily car routes). Also see Chaos Theory and my 29 November 2016 blog on Time & Space

Often future predictions are nothing more than an extrapolation of historical and current events. Other predictions are like clairvoyance (eg, Edgar Cayce, Nostradamus). Some predictions are nice to read, like Jacques Attali's A brief history of the future. Other predictions are gloomy, like Ingo Piepers' (free) book "2020 Warning" that predicts a global military conflict by 2020.

Nearly 10 years ago, I was working on a banking presentation and I stumbled on this 2008 diagram. Also see my 10 March 2016 blog.

This 2008 diagram predicted some 10-15 difficul years until around 2020. It's hard to argue that these predictions were wrong.

I think, feel and believe that the Strauss-Howe Generational Cycle has a bearing on Ingo Piepers' book. This cycle has 4 turns of some 20-22 years each and ends with a Crisis.

The Generational Cycle might be some kind of human tipping point in Time & Space. Anything before is History and can "thus" be ignored as we are living in "new" times which are "unrelated" to the past (eg, the belief in a "new economy"). Moreover, in today's world history and facts are meaningless. Everything is just an opinion (eg, meaningless facts in post-truth Trumpworld).

The election of Donald Trump might actually be a blessing in disguise. His family is notorious for dodging military draft (eg, grandfather Friedrich Trump, Donald Trump). Compared to the alleged hawkish Clinton, it's more likely that Trump will not engage the USA into a new global conflict.

Our failure to see, to acknowledge and to accept historical trends developing into our future, keeps on taking us by surprise in the Now. We only believe what we see and when we see it. Hence, the ancient proverb seeing is believing. "People change for two main reasons: either their minds have been opened or their hearts have been broken". A nice quote from Steven Aitchison (hat tip@ASK).

En Vogue - Free Your Mind (1992) - artists, lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Why oh why must it be this way
Before you can read me you gotta learn how to see me, I said
Free your mind and the rest will follow
Be colour blind, don't be so shallow.