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Friday, 11 November 2016

The Old Fox

Much to my surprise, the Old Fox still managed to raid the henhouse on Tuesday. The conciliatory words in his victory speech did not convince me: a fox may lose its hairs but will never lose its traits. This is a translation of a Dutch saying but I trust that anyone, who knows a fox, will understand.

I have never doubted that he could win but did not expect that he would, after upsetting so many people. The hatred towards his opponent was worse than I already imagined it was. This hatred had started with her husband. She however embodied the worst of both.

Clearly, this victory will allow any billionaire to run for President as long as you do not stick to the political playbook, else you don't stand a chance (eg, Bloomberg, Perot). Success as a business Owner (and CEO) will not guarantee success as a President. The difference between both is a lot like my recent blog on Power: it's force versus collaboration.

Tuesday, I heard 5 of his known plans: create 25 million jobs, invest heavily in infrastructure, decrease taxes, cancel Obamacare and cancel climate/environmental deals. The latter 3 will please his party. The first 2 also sound like the current administration. Moreover, these 5 plans will certainly not fund each other. US budget deficits and US debt are likely to explode. Rise of interest and inflation and a US$ decline also seem likely. This will allow him to renegotiate foreign debt.

This "Republican" President may become the first in history who controls Congress (ie, House and Senate) and will face opposition from his own party and - perhaps - support from the opposition. That is what you will get with a Trojan - or Trump - Horse.

Uncertainty will rule at least until the inauguration date of 20 January 2017. Until then and also afterwards, we should expect lots of surprises as this Old Fox was intentionally shallow on policy matters, like any fox would be. Once again, a fox may lose its hairs but will never lose its traits. At home, his opponents already know what to expect: a vindictive enemy who just gained lots of power.

I'm curious how some countries will react when the impact of his plans will start to hurt them. I expect that these 25 million jobs will indeed be created and by punishing foreign outsourcing. His fossil energy plans are likely to hurt the oil price. His alleged Russian friend will not like that.

This Old Fox is not a collaborator but an opportunist who seizes deals when he sees them and by bending the rules in his favour. That is not unusual in business. I even doubt he has friends, in the true meaning of the word. He will have many people who are dependent on him though.

I think, feel and believe that this surprising election outcome will show a similar process as Brexit: regret and remorse once this Old Fox's true colours are revealed. Then we will feel it. For now, this Old Fox is still on the run. Regret and remorse are an essential part of learning though.

The Sweet - Fox On The Run (1974) - artists-1, artists-2lyrics, video, Wiki-1, Wiki-2


Young Gun Silver Fox - You Can Feel It (2015) - artists, lyrics, tumblr, video, Wiki