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Monday, 14 November 2016

Brexit ? Calexit !

In 2006, Jacques Attali wrote a book called A brief history of the future (Wiki). A former colleague recommended this book to me some 5 years ago. It's a marvelous read. One of the intriguing ideas in this book is now slowly emerging: a 2019 Californian exit - or Calexit (eg, BIRT, Telegraph). The official reason is President-elect Donald Trump although the background of some Calexit supporters suggests that "state-sponsored actors" might also be involved.

If I recall well, Jacques Attali's idea was that Texas would separate from USA given the increasingly dominant Spanish language in south-west USA. Texas would then subsequently rejoin Mexico to which it belonged before. California is another U.S. state in which Spanish is surging. Since 2016, California ranks #6 (2015: #8) in the largest global economies with USA at #1, China #2, Japan #3, Germany #4, and the UK at #5 (eg, Fortune, Sacbee).

A Calexit (#6) may look smaller than a Brexit (#5) and may not hurt the #1, USA. A brief look at Google Maps learns that USA would lose more than half of its West Coast, including military defense bases. A Calexit would definitely be a paradigm shift in geopolitics. Hence, my earlier suggestion of "state-sponsored actors" being involved.

On 10 November 2016, a Russian diplomat finally acknowledged that it had been in contact with Team Trump during the Presidential election (eg, Bloomberg, WP). A smart move as this news got overwhelmed by the news on the stunning victory of Trump on 9 November. It's hard to separate a starting Calexit movement from this Russian acknowledgement. Mr Trump may like to grab women by the pussy but his alleged Russian friend now has Trump by his balls.

No doubt, Trump's victory will create Calexit support from several sides: the almost 62% voting for Clinton, Hollywood, and probably also from Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley had already coined an exit some years ago which had just been silly back then. The presence of Silicon Valley billionaires is likely to result into several Calexit surprises.

A Calexit would be the definitive tipping point for the rise and fall of a Superpower. On 22 April 2016, I published my blog Tipping Points - USA. Excerpt: "Usually, the rise and fall of civilisations can only be witnessed and explained decades after its occurrence. Mr Trump himself may become a tipping point in several unexpected ways: rise in Republican Party, rise to US Presidency, fall of America's global hegemony, and the fall of US$."

Mr Trump gained his Presidency by unleashing and uniting angry forces but his victory also created new angry forces that will now turn against him, bite him, and haunt him. This reminds me of the saying: "If you play with fire, you get burned". Essentially, it's based on ancient wisdom, like What goes around, comes around, and For whatever a man sows, he will also reap. It's also Karma, which "refers to the spiritual principle of cause and effect where intent and actions of an individual (cause) influence the future of that individual (effect)".

The Mamas & The Papas - California Dreamin' (1965)