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Tuesday, 10 May 2016

Tipping points - China

While Europe is falling apart (eg, BrexitDeuxitFrexit, Grexit), and Russia raiding its banks looking for cash (Politico, Vedomosti), and USA heading for a classical Rise and Fall of nations (see my 22 April 2016 blog: Tipping points – USA), China may have another windfall. China had an earlier windfall in 2001 when USA helped China into the WTO (source). The 2015 IMF approval of the reserve-currency status for China's yuan was another one (see my 31 January 2016 blog). 

Some may call it luck, the Chinese would probably refer to (state) planning. It doesn't really matter as only the outcome is relevant towards the future. Lately, China has considerably changed its stance towards a Trump Presidency (Politico 8 May 2016) with an occasional exception (WSJ 18 April 2016). The rather dumb public statements of Trump on NATO, Japan and South Korea is now seen as a unique Chinese opportunity to take over US hegemony.

Neither China nor USA can allow Russia to assume control over Europe. Nevertheless, it is quite likely that Russia will want to profit from the military vacuum being created by Donald Trump (eg, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (aka Baltic States), Georgia, rest Ukraine and perhaps even Poland). In that context, the recently leaked German proposal for a European army makes perfect sense (GeoPolitics 4 May 2016). Angela Merkel may be one of the few politicians who actually understands the Russian President. I wonder whether a recent very intriguing Radio Free Europe article on the Russian version of Goodfellas (IMDb) has any relation to all of this. I don't believe in coincidences. 

The Asian hemisphere (eg, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) may change dramatically due to these recent developments, once again instigated by Donald Trump. The reliability of - and trust in - America may be affected for many decades. Donald Trump’s focus on domestic issues (and its retreat from the global platform) may actually become quite successful and allow for a 2020 reelection. The Chinese would profit immensely from a Trump decade. 

In my view, it would also illustrate that our Western style democracy is at the end of its economic lifecycle. Nevertheless, the Chinese will have a tough balancing act between a corrupt kleptocracy (eg, Russia) and an authoritarian democracy (eg, Hong Kong, Singapore). I think and feel that they may pull this one off. Some may call this luck, others may call it (ruthless) planning.

The Precession transition from the end of the Age of Pisces towards the beginning of the Age of Aquarius is full of turmoil and is most interesting so far (also see my 18 April 2016 blog). It makes perfect sense that change creates fear, promise and turmoil (see my 13 April 2016 blog). One cannot expect anything else. Given the meaning of the Age of Aquarius, I feel confident about our future although uncomfortable about the transitional period that is still ahead of us.

America’s decline is accelerated by Trump’s rise. It offers the Chinese a unique opportunity to regain hegemony once again. This time globally unlike their earlier regional 2,000+ years. See my 11 April 2015 blog on SuperPowers for the last 5,000 years. The Chinese waited long enough. When you quietly abide your time, and your chances, then some people may still call it luck. I do not.

Van Velzen- Call It Luck (2015) - artist, lyrics, video, Wiki (UK), Wiki (NL)

Call it luck 
You can call it chance 
Call it what you want 
Never understand


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