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Friday, 22 April 2016

Tipping points - USA

A few days ago, I wrote about the Earth’s wobble as the possible tipping point for climate change. Today’s blog is about some other possible tipping points and all regarding the USA. Recently, several interesting statements were made and to some extent even quite independently.

The fall of the US Dollar is only a matter of time. This week, TIME Magazine published an extensive article on the fundamentals for this widely expected fall: The United States of Insolvency. In my view, the US$ only looks strong because other main currencies are even weaker and that hides its fundamental weakness. Also see my 6 May 2015 blog: US Dollar collapse.

Both Donald Trump and President Obama have recently criticised the free riders within NATO (eg, NYT, WP). Mr Trump has even threatened Asian allies to withdraw US regional presence if they do not reimburse the USA for more than the 50% they do now (eg, Bloomberg, NYT). Mr Trump also feels that NATO is obsolete and that the USA should focus on its many domestic issues (eg, education, infrastructure, jobs). His comments may be valid for American domestic purposes but it's also likely to boost the global ambitions of US frenemies. 

China is clearly aware of that. On 17 April 2016, the Chinese Finance Minister made a remarkable statement in relation to Donald Trump's tax proposal on US imports from China: if the US put Trump’s proposal into effect, it “would not be entitled to its position as the world’s major power" (eg, Guardian, WSJ). The reference to the end of the US hegemony (from 1900 onwards) is very interesting. Also see my blogs about the SuperPowers for the past 5,000 years, and the rise & fall of civilisations (parts 1 and 2).

Another very recent statement: "Saudi Arabia has told the Obama administration and members of Congress that it will sell off hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of American assets held by the kingdom if Congress passes a bill that would allow the Saudi government to be held responsible in American courts for any role in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks". (NYT 15 April 2016)

In my view, NATO is the perfect illustration of current US global hegemony. NATO is dominated by the USA. The US criticism towards NATO is ultimately an attack on "its [own] position as the world’s major power". Therefore, the election of Donald Trump as the next US President could be the final trigger for several global tipping points, including the end of US global hegemony (eg, NATO), and the fall of the US$. 

Usually, the rise and fall of civilisations can only be witnessed and explained decades after its occurrence. Mr Trump himself may become a tipping point in several unexpected ways: rise in Republican Party, rise to US Presidency, fall of America's global hegemony, and the fall of US$. The rise of China and the fall of USA was predicted in 1943 by another American: Edgar Cayce.

Things always happen for a reason. Mr Trump is the token of American arrogance. American Proverbs claim the following: Arrogance is a kingdom without a crown, Arrogance is a roadblock on the highway of wisdom, and an arrogant bug is a cocky roach. I suppose few people will shed a tear.

Paul Carrack - Don't Shed a Tear (1987) - artist, lyrics, Wiki-1, Wiki-2

Don't shed a tear for me 
My life won't end without you
(Without you)
Long as the night will be 
The sun will rise without you


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