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Thursday, 2 July 2015

July 5 - Greek Independence Day

Like many, I am also baffled about the Greek approach to the negotiations with its creditors. The Greek propose concessions to its creditors while advising NO to the Greek voters on these very same concessions. The Greek government humiliates its few remaining European friends in public. The Greek government seems to contradict itself on every single topic. While their creditors seem more and more negative towards negotiations, the Greek government appears to remain positive about the outcome of their negotiations. What kind of game is being played?

I have been trying to find analogies like the Stockholm Syndrome in which the Greek creditors are held hostage (e.g., current debt of Euro 320 billion, impact of a Grexit precedent on other weak countries, geo-political considerations, reputation damage). However, a Stockholm Syndrome creates empathy for the hostage takers. The Greek government only creates antipathy.

Mr. Juncker feels betrayed by his former friend Mr. Tsipras. Betrayal is probably the most powerful negative emotion. It's a perfect recipe for future revenge. It's hard to imagine that betrayal happens by accident, let alone coincidence. Betrayal is a deliberate move.

The Greek government's confidence and the Greek approach to the negotiations can only imply that they cannot lose. Many still assume that the Greek play a game of bluff poker. I don't. The Greek government is deliberately upsetting its creditors by suggesting defeat and submission in their negotiations and then giving combatant speeches in Greek parliament that suggest the opposite.

The Greek government has done almost everything to please their own voters and scare the Greek opposition. Allegedly, entire Greek families are torn apart over the YES or NO answer in the July 5 referendum. The current liquidity crisis and the government advised NO answer to the referendum, may well cause an imminent Greek exodus. Who stands to benefit from this?

The alienation of Europe and the alienation of the Greek opposition both suggest the very worst: a deliberate divide and conquer policy. Who stands to benefit from this?

The blame game has long started. The Greek government blames the creditors in public insulting terms that are without precedent and suggest deliberate anger management. The creditors blame the Greek government for sabotaging the negotiations and lying about it to the Greek voters.

In my opinion, the Greek government wants to upset the creditors to such an extent that they are left with only one option: being kicked-out of the Euro, EU and so on. And NATO too.

In my 24 January 2015 blog, I predicted that Greece will be the next Cuba. Only yesterday, Cuba and the USA (once Cuba's arch enemy) announced to restore their diplomatic relations (BBC).

If Greece indeed becomes the new Cuba then we may even experience something like a new Cuban missile crisis (Wiki). We may also expect a trade and financial embargo of Greece.

July 5 is possibly the last moment that the Greek people can exercise their democratic rights and either kick-out Mr. Tsipras or Europe. July 5 will be the Greek (End of) Independence Day.