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Monday, 13 July 2015

Greece - It ain't over until the fat lady sings

On the one hand, I should be glad that people read my blog and use my ideas: a debt-for-equity swap, external receivership and hopefully also a debt write-off although this is far from clear yet. On the other hand, the outcome of Sunday's negotiations comes quite close to a public Greek humiliation of immense proportions.

The public Greek humiliation reminds of the following: “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.” A quote from "The Art of War" by Chinese general Sun Tzu (c. 544 - 496 BC). The Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu (c. 604 - 531 BC) once wrote "When two great forces oppose each other, the victory will go to the one that knows how to yield."

The ratification in Greek parliament may be less obvious than one would expect. The current Greek PM managed to give away what his predecessors managed to maintain for decades: a near complete sell-out of Greek sovereignty. It is still quite possible that Greek dignity will win from Greek desperation. The reasons for such a non ratification would be opaque to non Greeks.

The public Greek humiliation is largely due to the former Greek Finance Minister who was wise enough to resign rather than face this outcome. His game tactics did not take into account that beggars can't be choosers. I wouldn't be surprised if he would be orchestrating a non ratification.

The Dutch PM has already publicly expressed his admission to betraying his voters on another one of his promises. A smart move as denial could have made him force to resign. It may be a short-term win but a long-term loss as (his) political promises appear to be worthless.

The outcome of Sunday evening/night 12 July also makes clear that the EU is a de-facto political union, including international wealth redistribution, although no voter has ever been able to express his/her opinion. 

I am far from convinced that yesterday's outcome is final. The public humiliation would be complete when the Greek parliament does not ratify Sunday's outcome. That would then probably also be the moment to finally introduce the Greek silent equity partner, saviour or white knight. 

Some other interesting - and relevant - statements by Sun Tzu about military game tactics:
  • Pretend inferiority and encourage his (i.e., the enemy's) arrogance. 
  • The general who advances without coveting fame and retreats without fearing disgrace, whose only thought is to protect his country and do good service for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom.
  • Confront them (i.e., the Greek people) with annihilation, and they will then survive; plunge them into a deadly situation, and they will then live. When people fall into danger, they are then able to strive for victory.
  • Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack.
It ain't over until the fat lady sings................ (Wikipedia)