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Monday, 6 July 2015

Greece - from democracy through demagogy to autocracy

A demagogue (derived from the Greek "demos" = people/folk and the verb "ago" = carry/manipulate thus "people's manipulator") is a political leader in a democracy who appeals to the emotions, fears, prejudices, and ignorance of the lower socio-economic classes in order to gain power and promote political motives. (Wikipedia)

The resignation statement of the Greek Finance Minister (see his July 6 blog) finally made me aware of the victim role that has been assumed by the Greek government. I am surprised that I didn't see this before. Realising this also made me realise that the Greek government has been using reverse psychology and projection (see my April 16 blog) towards its creditors. This also explains why most are baffled by the nonsense which the new Greek government has been expressing for long.

Everything that the new Greek government has done so far, is aimed at provoking its creditors for the sole purpose of winning the blame game (see my July 5 blog). It is absolutely necessary for the Greek government that the creditors are to be blamed for ending the bail-out negotiations. That will finally allow them to introduce a white knight who will save the proud Greek people from a catastrophe.

Once the blame game is won then the Greek government will use the "friend or foe" criterion to fully alienate itself from its current benefactors/creditors/friends. This same criterion will then also be used to establish close ties with its new friend, saviour and white knight. The continued (financial) chaos may well be used to "temporarily" suspend democracy and introduce a more appropriate kind of leadership, and one similar to its new ally. From democracy through demagogy to autocracy. The Greek PM will then join an interesting group of nations whose leaders already play a successful victim role: Russia and Turkey. Also see my February 18 blog. 

Allegedly, the Greek banks plan to exercise a "hair cut" of - at least - 30% on Greek deposits above Euro 8,000 (FT) as the Greek banks would not survive a new bank run by its depositors once the banks reopen. The Greek plan is basically a copy of the one of Cyprus in which people lost 47.5% of their deposits over Euro 100,000 (Reuters). This plan would help prevent a bankruptcy of the Greek banks but it would also enrage the people losing money. Undoubtedly, the new Greek government will continue its victim role and fully blame the creditors and the ECB for this hair cut. 

Considering the overwhelming "NO" vote in the Greek referendum of July 5, it is quite likely that this majority would also be found within institutions that provide checks and balances: the legal system, the police and the military. The Greek military is an interesting factor as military coups in Greece have not been uncommon (Wiki 1, Wiki 2). Interestingly, sixteen retired leaders of the country’s armed forces issued a joint declaration calling on Greeks to show “calm and national unity” in the run-up to the July 5 referendum, insisting: “Greece is and must remain a protagonist in European affairs – Greece is Europe.” (The Independent)

The clear "NO" answer of the Greek people is likely to cause a Grexit from EU and also NATO. This would bring the right-wing Greek military and the left-wing Greek government on a collision course. This scenario could then lead to the arrival of unmarked airplanes with unmarked forces, similar to Crimea. This scenario could cause the new 1962 Cuba crisis which I mentioned in my July 5 blog.

Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the future to run over him. Dwight David Eisenhower (1890-1969), 34th President of the USA.