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Friday, 24 July 2015

A Trojan - or Trump - Horse

Today's First-FT featured an article that the American Republican Party is now quite concerned due to Donald Trump’s success and the friction that he is causing within that (GOP) party. Donald Trump has threatened a third-party (independent) run if the GOP does not treat him "fairly" (CNNThe Hill). In some ways, Donald Trump is like a brood cuckoo who is cannibalising on the other Republican eggs. In other ways, he is like a Trojan - or Trump - Horse within American politics at large.

Donald Trump’s remarks still remind me of the late (i.e., murdered) Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn. No vested Dutch politician was able to get a grip on Pim Fortuyn. Both Donald Trump and Pim Fortuyn are (were) far from boring. Yet, Donald Trump’s success within the Republican Party must certainly also be a protest vote against all these other boring Republican candidates as bluntness and/or rudeness is usually not a political virtue (or vice) that commands success.

Donald Trump is becoming a nightmare to the Republicans as they are unable to control him. The other (boring) candidates need the Republican Party much more than the Republican Party needs them. Donald Trump does not need the Republican Party but the Republican Party cannot oust Donald Trump without losing the 2016 Presidential Election. It's usually better to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. (The Godfather II, 1974).

The moment that Donald Trump gets voter credibility from both sides of the political arena, he will become a nightmare to the Democrats too. In fact, I'm still waiting for him to make that move but most likely it's still far too early in the race. The fact that Donald Trump can actually buy himself a ticket to the White – or Trump – House (see my July 13 blog) should be a big concern to both parties. Donald Trump is likely to cause equal damage to the USA as Silvio Berlusconi did to Italy. It may not be a coincidence that both are CEO's and think that a country can be run like a company.

China and Russia are both eager to take over America’s role. However, sooner or later their centuries old animosity is likely to bring new conflicts. While China is infiltrating in Africa, mid and south America, and also south east Asia, Russia is infiltrating in Europe and Central Asia. America is far more likely to retreat (e.g., Arab region, Asia, Europe, Mid and South America) than to expand its global influence. A unified Europe will soon become a must-be rather than a nice-to-have.

It's interesting to notice that America’s Asian allies seem much more aware of the Chinese global ambitions than America itself. I wouldn't be surprised if the South East Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO) will be revived in the coming years. SEATO is likely to become that region’s NATO.

Europe has become a de facto political union since the recent third Greek bailout as the conditions of this bailout provide an implicit redistribution of European wealth. Actually, Europe should be glad that this bailout decision was NOT taken democratically. The trade-off between democracy, stability and prosperity (June 29 blog) is not an easy one. Greece has even shown us how democracy in 2015 works: promise everything, get elected, betray everyone, fire the “standfasters” in your government and party, and let the opposition bail you out in parliament!

A fool and his money are soon elected. A quote attributed to Will Rogers (1879-1935)