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Tuesday, 12 May 2015

The EU is dead. Long live a new Europe.

Following his unexpected victory, the English PM now wants to renegotiate the UK's role within the EU (link 1, link 2). Similar to Mrs Thatcher's famous EU discount, this renegotiation would cost the EU a fortune. This may also be the perfect timing for considering something entirely else: a new Europe. Rather than continuing to dilute the monetary union, it's also an excellent timing for a further unification by the core countries of Europe. The rest may join on the core's conditions - or leave.

The best thing Europe could do with the Britons, is ignoring them. Some day the UK will finally acknowledge that they are no longer the superpower they once used to be. The German Chancellor and the French President should take the lead in a unified Europe. This unified Europe should not be a copy of the EU, let alone an expanded version. The English PM is very right in that view. A new Europe should cherrypick on the blueprint of the USA and improve on its flaws.

The original intention of the EU was to bring peace and prosperity to its region which has been the main battlefield for many, many centuries. A monetary union has proven to be insufficient in times of trouble. Ignoring the European voters was a huge mistake in the EU blueprint. The pivotal point was adding countries to the EU that hardly belong to Europe. The EU's ambitions for issuing regulation without the backing of a political union then became fatal.

The blueprint should be based upon two criteria: everything that could stay national must stay national. Everything that must be supranational will be supranational. Examples of these - outbound - matters would include defense, foreign affairs, international agreements, monetary policy, and a Government. Legislation and regulation with an inbound focus should be kept national.

The outbound focus of a unified Europe should counter the following: Russia's continued military aggression against several countries in Eastern Europe. The developments in Turkey - once secular - also bring a dire message. The volume of extraterritorial legislation by the USA requires a unified Europe. China's continued purchases of foreign strategic assets and natural resources, its industrial espionage, its lack of (maintaining) international copyright laws, require a unified Europe.

Europe must finally assume its long overdue role of a superpower. For the majority of the past 5,000 years, Europe has been a superpower. The USA only for the last 100 years and it's unclear to me whether the USA is able to maintain its role of superpower given the vast socio-economic imbalances in its society. Its seemingly unlimited resilience may once again be leading. The real question is: for how much longer? Europe should not rely on the USA for bailing them out again (WWII).

The core nations of a new Europe are probably the same ones as in 1951: France, Germany, Italy and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BeNeLux). This should also give a balance between various interests. There must be a mandatory referendum in each of these 6 countries before any treaty is signed. Each additional country entering the new Europe must require the majority voter consent of the other nations. The mistakes that came with the EU must not be repeated. This time quality must prevail over quantity.

The EU is dead. Long live a new Europe.